DeBriefed 31 October 2025: Hurricane Melissa strikes Jamaica; Climate plans overshoot 1.5C; Protest crackdowns
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Summary
<p>Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed. An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate...</p> <p>The post <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/debriefed-31-october-2025-hurricane-melissa-strikes-jamaica-climate-plans-overshoot-1-5c-protest-crackdowns/">DeBriefed 31 October 2025: Hurricane Melissa strikes Jamaica; Climate plans overshoot 1.5C; Protest crackdowns</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org">Carbon Brief</a>.</p>
<p class="has-text-align-center">W<em>elcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed. </em><br /><em>An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.</em></p>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>This week</strong></h1>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Hurricane Melissa</strong></h3>
<p><strong>‘TOTAL DEVASTATION’:</strong> Hurricane Melissa has killed at least 49 people after sweeping through the Caribbean islands of Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti and Bermuda, reported <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/hurricane-melissa-live-jamaica-bahamas-bermuda-satellite-images-b2855844.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Independent</a>. Jamaica’s prime minister Andrew Holness said the storm left “total devastation”, destroying homes and infrastructure and leaving people “stranded on roofs and without power”, said <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy0kvrnyy4wo" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">BBC News</a>. In Haiti, at least 30 people were killed in floods, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/hurricane-melissa-smashes-through-caribbean-accelerates-towards-bermuda-2025-10-30/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Reuters</a> added.</p>
<p><strong>WARM WATERS:</strong> Melissa is tied as the strongest Atlantic hurricane to ever hit land, slamming Jamaica with winds of 185mph and fuelled by anomalously warm waters, reported the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/hurricane-jamaica-melissa-global-warming-climate-8a409c1206f55ea45b372c892ff894b3" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Associated Press</a>. Fossil-fuelled climate change made the storm “four times more likely”, according to analysis cited by <a href="https://www.barrons.com/news/climate-change-made-hurricane-melissa-four-times-more-likely-study-70dedebc" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Agence France-Presse</a>. Early estimates suggest infrastructure damage alone could amount to 40% of Jamaica’s gross domestic product, said the newswire.</p>
<p><strong>RECORD RAINS:</strong> Elsewhere, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/28/record-rains-drive-flooding-in-vietnam-submerging-ancient-city" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a> reported on major floods in central Vietnam, where the former imperial city of Huế saw record rainfall of more than 1,000mm over a 24-hour period, according to the country’s weather agency. The <a href="https://apnews.com/article/vietnam-floods-record-rainfall-3492e2748c8504392943f21b5df5079a" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Associated Press</a> reported that climate change is “driving more intense winds, heavier rainfall and shifting precipitation patterns across East Asia”.</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Climate plans off track for 1.5C</strong></h3>
<p><strong>‘DRASTICALLY SHORT’:</strong> The latest national climate plans will cause global emissions to drop 10% by 2035 from 2019 levels, “bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time”, but falling “drastically short” of the 60% cut needed to keep 1.5C in sight, said the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/oct/28/worlds-climate-plans-fall-drastically-short-of-action-needed-analysis-shows" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Guardian</a>. The plans – known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement – were assessed by the UN in a synthesis report ahead of COP30, the publication said. The 10% cut reflects plans announced by China and the EU, in addition to formal submissions from 64 countries, according to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/countries-new-climate-plans-start-cutting-global-emissions-un-says-2025-10-28/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Reuters</a>.</p>
<p><strong>OVERSHOOT ‘INEVITABLE’</strong>: UN secretary-general António Guterres said in a joint interview with the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/oct/28/change-course-now-humanity-has-missed-15c-climate-target-says-un-head" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Guardian</a> and the Amazonian publication <a href="https://sumauma.com/en/secretario-geral-onu-antonio-guterres-vozes-indigenas-inspirar-mundo-evitar-catastrofe-climatica/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Sumaúma</a> that overshooting 1.5C of global warming was now “inevitable” and would have “devastating consequences”. Guterres “did not give up on the [1.5C] target”, but urged world leaders to “change course” during COP30 to ensure the “overshoot is as short as possible and as low in intensity as possible to avoid tipping points like the Amazon”.</p>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Around the world</strong></h1>
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<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>DELIVERY: </strong>The UK government published its “carbon budget and growth delivery” plan, outlining policies to meet its mid-2030s climate targets. Read more in Carbon Brief’s in-depth <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-the-uk-governments-carbon-budget-delivery-plan-for-2035/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">coverage</a> of the plan.</li>
<li><strong>DEAL UNEARTHED:</strong> Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have settled a dispute over rare-earth mineral supplies during trade talks, said the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/30/trump-and-xi-meet-in-south-korea-for-crunch-talks-on-trade" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Guardian</a>. Trump described the talks as “amazing” and agreed to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods by 10%, it added.</li>
<li><strong>AVOIDABLE DEATHS: </strong>Climate change and policy “failures” are leading to “millions” of avoidable deaths each year, according to <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2025/10/29/climate-change-causing-millions-of-avoidable-deaths-lancet-study_6746874_114.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Le Monde</a>’s coverage of the latest Lancet Countdown report on health and climate change.</li>
<li><strong>DEFORESTATION DOWN:</strong> On the eve of hosting COP30, Brazil’s government announced an 11% drop in annual deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, the fourth consecutive annual fall and lowest deforestation rate since 2014, reported <a href="https://uk.news.yahoo.com/brazil-boasts-drop-deforestation-ahead-204107929.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Agence France-Presse</a>.</li>
<li><strong>DUTCH ELECTION</strong>: Democrats 66 (D66), the centrist party led by former climate minister Rob Jetten, narrowly won a snap general election in the Netherlands, said <a href="https://brusselssignal.eu/2025/10/d66-party-wins-dutch-elections-ex-eu-climate-czar-timmermans-resigns/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Brussels Signal</a>. </li>
<li><strong>EU FLEXIBILITY:</strong> As the EU continues to negotiate 2040 emissions targets, the bloc is considering a “more flexible path” for industries to meet the goals, reported <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/eu-considers-more-flexible-climate-target-hunt-deal-draft-shows-2025-10-26" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Reuters</a>.</li>
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<h1 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-center"><strong>12 times</strong></h1>
<p class="has-text-align-center">The extent to which current finance flows would have to increase to meet developing countries’ adaptation finance needs in 2035, according to the latest UN adaptation gap report covered by <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/un-report-five-charts-which-explain-the-gap-in-finance-for-climate-adaptation/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Carbon Brief</a>.</p>
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<h1 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Latest climate research</strong></h1>
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<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Young children in sub-Saharan Africa are 77% more at risk from malaria for every 1C temperature increase | <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0335031" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">PLOS One</a></li>
<li>Social media use is linked to “climate anxiety, climate doom and support for radical action” | <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-025-04048-6" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Climatic Change</a></li>
<li>Future droughts could weaken peatlands’ ability to store carbon, creating a positive feedback cycle for climate change | <a href="https://pdpwbj.clicks.mlsend.com/tb/c/eyJ2Ijoie1wiYVwiOjI0OTYxNyxcImxcIjoxNjk0MDQ1OTEyMjU0Mzk1MzYsXCJyXCI6MTY5NDA0NjE3MTQ0MTQxMDU2fSIsInMiOiI3NTk0MzU1MTkwMDhlOGU2In0" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Science</a></li>
</ul>
<p>(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/exxon-sues-california-us-losing-on-evs-brazil-defends-drilling/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Monday</a>, <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/climate-plans-short-melissa-nears-landfall-1-5c-overshoot-inevitable/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Tuesday</a>, <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/melissa-strikes-jamaica-climate-and-human-health-cheaper-green-power-on-the-way/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Wednesday</a>, <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/unprecedented-melissa-yawning-gap-on-adaptation-uks-climate-delivery-plan/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Thursday</a> and <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/brazils-deforestation-dip-record-climate-finance-netherlands-snap-election/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Friday</a>.)</p>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Captured</strong></h1>
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<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img alt="Soil horizons are divided into organic matter, topsoil, subsoil, substratum or parent material and hard bedrock." class="wp-image-59704" height="845" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/seperate_table_and_soil_levels_2.png" width="857" /></figure>
<p><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-the-role-of-soil-health-in-food-security-and-tackling-climate-change/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Carbon Brief</a> explored the importance of soil health for food security and climate change in a new Q&A. As the diagram above illustrates, agricultural soil is composed of four layers – known as soil horizons – containing varying quantities of minerals, organic matter, living organisms, air and water. The world’s soils have lost 133bn tonnes of carbon since the advent of agriculture around 12,000 years ago, with crop production and cattle grazing responsible in equal part.</p>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Spotlight</strong></h1>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Crackdowns on climate and environmental activism</strong></h3>
<p><em>This week, Carbon Brief speaks to </em><a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/special-procedures/sr-human-rights-defenders/ms-mary-lawlor" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank"><em>Mary Lawlor</em></a><em>, UN special rapporteur on human rights defenders, who led a recent </em><a href="https://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/gen/n25/180/76/pdf/n2518076.pdf" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank"><em>report</em></a><em> highlighting crackdowns on the rights of climate and environmental activists around the world.</em></p>
<p><strong>Carbon Brief: Why do you see climate change as a human-rights issue?</strong></p>
<p>Mary Lawlor: I don’t think there’s any doubt about climate change being a human-rights issue nowadays, because everyone can see it. It interferes with so many rights. The <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-mechanisms/instruments/international-covenant-economic-social-and-cultural-rights#article-11" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">right to food</a>, for example. We’ve seen the situation where drought, storms and floods interfere with food production. And then if you look at the <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-mechanisms/instruments/international-covenant-civil-and-political-rights#article-6" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">right to life</a> – according to the <a href="https://www.who.int/europe/news/item/01-08-2024-statement--heat-claims-more-than-175-000-lives-annually-in-the-who-european-region--with-numbers-set-to-soar" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">WHO</a>, we’re currently seeing an average of 175,000 heat-related deaths per year around the world, and those numbers will increase. But we now also have advisory opinions of the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/icj-what-the-world-courts-landmark-opinion-means-for-climate-change/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">ICJ</a>, the <a href="https://www.corteidh.or.cr/docs/opiniones/seriea_32_en.pdf" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Inter-American Court of Human Rights</a>, the <a href="https://www.itlos.org/en/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea</a>, all of which state clearly that climate change is a reality. They see it as a human-rights crisis.</p>
<p><strong>CB: What human-rights violations are being faced by climate and environmental activists around the world right now?</strong></p>
<p>ML: We went to a lot of Indigenous communities in the Amazon and we saw firsthand the threats against Indigenous defenders in <a href="https://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/gen/n25/180/76/pdf/n2518076.pdf#page=18" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Brazil</a> who are opposing <a href="https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/carbon-offsets-2023/mapped.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">carbon-credit projects</a> in their territories, where they themselves have been reducing deforestation with success for years. Then, for example, there were smears against a lawyer in <a href="https://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/gen/n25/180/76/pdf/n2518076.pdf#page=17" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Argentina</a> who was supporting communities in their legal fight against the extraction of lithium from their territories without their consent. And, then, you have surveillance of climate activists organising peaceful protests against new fossil-fuel projects, for example, in the <a href="https://srdefenders.org/philippines-surveillance-and-harassment-of-human-rights-defenders-working-to-combat-climate-change-in-cebu-province-joint-communication/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Philippines</a>. So it’s kind of like an octopus, the tentacles are reaching out.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img alt="An Indigenous woman protests outside pre-COP30 meetings in Brasilia, Brazil. " class="wp-image-59791" height="683" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/3CXEJ1D.jpg" width="1024" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">An Indigenous woman protests outside pre-COP30 meetings in Brasilia, Brazil. Credit: Associated Press / <a href="https://www.alamy.com/mediacomp/imagedetails.aspx?ref=3CXEJ1D" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Alamy Stock Photo</a><br /></figcaption></figure>
<p>In some of the more developed countries, like France and Spain, you have accusations of <a href="https://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/gen/n25/180/76/pdf/n2518076.pdf#page=16" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">terrorism</a> against peaceful climate-justice movements. In <a href="https://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/gen/n25/180/76/pdf/n2518076.pdf#page=15" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Germany</a>, you had the investigation and prosecution of a climate-justice group for alleged organised crime based solely on their peaceful protests that put no human being in danger and did no harm to anyone.</p>
<p><strong>CB: What are some examples that you’ve seen of good practice by governments in relation to the work of climate and environmental activists?</strong></p>
<p>ML: My favourite is Brazil and <a href="https://mst.org.br/quem-somos/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">MST</a> [Landless Workers’ Movement]. They were aided in their tree-planting programme by the federal authorities, who provided helicopters and the federal highway police piloted these helicopters. Seeds of the endangered juçara palm and araucaria trees could be air-dropped over land in Paraná, after the devastating fires that took place. So that’s my absolute favourite, because it showed how a state and defenders can work together as allies to prevent destruction and even worse climate change.</p>
<p><strong>CB: According to </strong><a href="https://globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/land-and-environmental-defenders/documenting-killings-and-disappearances-of-land-and-environmental-defenders/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank"><strong>Global Witness</strong></a><strong>, 413 land and environmental defenders were killed in Brazil during 2012-2024. What is the current situation for environmental defenders in Brazil going into COP30?</strong></p>
<p>[Brazil] are really making efforts, as far as I can see, to address the root causes – and this is really why human-rights defenders are in such danger – that is, land is at the heart of all the problems there. But progress is still very slow. At the moment, only 16 territories have been <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20251014-brazil-s-climate-wins-ahead-of-cop30" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">demarcated</a> by [Brazilian president] Lula and that is hugely important because, as I said, it’s at the root of pretty much all the attacks and killings by either the thugs associated with the companies, or the big landowners, the illegal logging, and all the stuff that is happening there. So that is something that we really need a speed up of – the demarcation of Indigenous lands.</p>
<p>When it comes to COP30, they’ve put some effort into making it more inclusive, especially when it comes to bringing the voices and experiences of Indigenous defenders into the negotiations. Now we’ll see what will happen in November and what the negotiations bring.</p>
<p><em>This interview has been edited for length.</em></p>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Watch, read, listen</strong></h1>
<p><strong>‘GOD’S WILL’: </strong><a href="https://www.samaa.tv/2087340697-how-pakistan-s-street-workers-see-climate-change-as-god-s-will" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Samaa TV</a> followed four street workers across Pakistan, exploring their views on climate change through the lens of faith.</p>
<p><strong>COP EXPECTATIONS: </strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHy_yYfNBBs" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Down to Earth</a> unpacked what to expect from COP30 from a global-south perspective in their Carbon Politics podcast.</p>
<p><strong>1.5C ALIGNED: </strong>Scientist and former UN climate lead Ploy Achakulwisut grappled via a <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/notes-from-science-diplomacy-field-1-which-new-ndcs-ploy-achakulwisut-inkac/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a> post with the challenges of assessing whether national targets are aligned with a 1.5C world.</p>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Coming up</strong></h1>
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<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>4 November: </strong><a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">UN emissions gap 2025 report launch</a></li>
<li><strong>4 November:</strong> <a href="https://www.iea.org/events/world-energy-outlook-2025" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">International Energy Agency (IEA) world energy outlook 2025 report launch</a></li>
<li><strong>6-7 November: </strong><a href="https://unfccc.int/cop30" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">COP30 leaders summit</a>, Belém, Brazil</li>
</ul>
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<h1 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Pick of the jobs</strong></h1>
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<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>International Institute for Sustainable Development</strong>, <a href="https://iisd.bamboohr.com/careers/850" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">head of secretariat, national adaptation plan global network</a> | Salary: CA$129,000-CA$161,000. Location: Ottawa or Toronto, Canada (hybrid)</li>
<li><strong>SRM360</strong>, <a href="https://srm360.org/jobs/lead-writer/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">lead writer/editor</a> | Salary: $100,000-$120,000. Location: Remote</li>
<li><strong>Project Drawdown</strong>, <a href="https://drawdown.org/careers/senior-analyst-climate-philanthropy-investing" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">senior analyst, climate philanthropy and investing</a> | Salary: $120,000-$160,000. Location: US</li>
<li><strong>Climate News Tracker</strong>, <a href="https://climatenewstracker.org/were-hiring-journalism-insights-analyst/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">journalism insights analyst</a> | Salary: Unknown. Location: London (hybrid)</li>
<li><strong>University of Birmingham</strong>, <a href="https://www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DPE529/climate-and-public-health-policy-impact-fellow" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">climate and public health policy impact fellow</a> | Salary: £36,636-£46,049. Location: Birmingham, UK</li>
</ul>
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<p class="has-text-align-center"><em>DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to </em><a href="mailto:[email protected]" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank"><em>[email protected]</em></a>.</p>
<p class="has-text-align-center"><em>This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for <a href="https://subscribe.carbonbrief.org/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">free here.</a></em></p>
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<a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/debriefed-3-october-2025-uk-political-gap-on-climate-widens-fossil-fuelled-typhoon-ragasa-overshoot-unknowns/"><img src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/debriefed_HERO_BLANK-1550x1033-1-300x200.png" /></a>
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<p class="text-header-s content"><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/debriefed-3-october-2025-uk-political-gap-on-climate-widens-fossil-fuelled-typhoon-ragasa-overshoot-unknowns/">DeBriefed 3 October 2025: UK political gap on climate widens; Fossil-fuelled Typhoon Ragasa; ‘Overshoot’ unknowns</a></p>
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<p class="text-tag-s">DeBriefed</p>
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<p class="text-tag-meta">03.10.25</p>
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<p>The post <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/debriefed-31-october-2025-hurricane-melissa-strikes-jamaica-climate-plans-overshoot-1-5c-protest-crackdowns/">DeBriefed 31 October 2025: Hurricane Melissa strikes Jamaica; Climate plans overshoot 1.5C; Protest crackdowns</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org">Carbon Brief</a>.</p>