World ‘will not see significant return to coal’ in 2026 – despite Iran crisis

<p>A much-discussed “<a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2026/04/08/coal-s-resurgence-is-a-symptom-of-an-incomplete-energy-transition_6752223_23.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">return to coal</a>” by some countries in the wake of the Iran war is likely to be far more limited than thought, amounting to a global rise of no more than 1.8% in coal power output this year.</p>

<p>The new analysis by thinktank Ember, shared exclusively with Carbon Brief, is a “worst-case” scenario and the reality could be even lower.</p>

<p><a href="https://energyandcleanair.org/fossil-power-fell-in-march-after-hormuz-blockade/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Separate data</a> shows that, to date, there has been no “return to coal” in 2026.</p>

<p>While <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/iran-war-analysis-how-60-nations-have-responded-to-the-global-energy-crisis/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">some countries</a>, such as Japan, Pakistan and the Philippines, have responded to disrupted gas supplies with plans to increase their coal use, the new analysis shows that these actions will likely result in a “small rise” at most.</p>

<p>In fact, the decline of coal power in some countries and the potential for global electricity demand growth to slow down could mean coal generation <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/clean-energy-pushes-fossil-fuel-power-into-reverse-for-first-time-ever/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">continues falling</a> this year.</p>

<p>Experts tell Carbon Brief that “the big story isn&#8217;t about a coal comeback” and any increase in coal use is “merely masking a longer-term structural decline”.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Instead, they say clean-energy projects are emerging as more appealing investments during the fossil-fuel driven energy crisis.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">‘Return to coal’</h2>

<p>The conflict following the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-does-the-iran-war-mean-for-the-energy-transition-and-climate-action/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">US-Israeli attacks</a> on Iran has disrupted global gas supplies, particularly after Iran blocked the strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint in the Persian Gulf.</p>

<p>A <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65584" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">fifth</a> of the world’s liquified natural gas (LNG) is normally shipped through this region, <a href="https://www.iea.org/topics/the-middle-east-and-global-energy-markets" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">mainly supplying</a> Asian countries. The blockage in this supply route means there is now less gas available and the remaining supplies are more expensive.</p>

<p>(Note that while the strait usually carries a fifth of LNG trade, this amounts to a <a href="https://www.shell.com/what-we-do/oil-and-natural-gas/liquefied-natural-gas-lng/lng-outlook-2025.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">much smaller share</a> of global gas supplies overall, with most gas being moved via pipelines.)</p>

<p>With gas supplies constrained and prices remaining well above pre-conflict levels, at least eight countries in Asia and Europe <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/iran-war-analysis-how-60-nations-have-responded-to-the-global-energy-crisis/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">have announced</a> plans to increase their coal-fired electricity generation, or to review or delay plans to phase out coal power.</p>

<p>These nations include <a href="https://www.meti.go.jp/shingikai/enecho/denryoku_gas/jisedai_kiban/pdf/005_07_00.pdf" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Japan</a>, <a href="https://www.korea.kr/briefing/pressReleaseView.do?newsId=156750584" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">South Korea</a>, <a href="https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2802238-bangladesh-ramps-up-coal-fired-output-on-lng-shortages" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Bangladesh</a>, the <a href="https://doe.gov.ph/articles/3381055--doe-enforces-emergency-measures-to-keep-power-stable-protect-consumers-from-price-spikes" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Philippines</a>, <a href="https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/3218640/asia-steps-up-coalfired-power-output" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Thailand</a>, <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1987349/lights-out-bills-up-as-summer-approaches" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Pakistan</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-27/germany-to-review-bringing-back-reserve-coal-plants-to-market" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Germany</a> and <a href="https://beyondfossilfuels.org/2026/03/30/italy-delays-coal-phase-out-to-2038/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Italy</a>. Many of these nations are major users of coal power.</p>

<p>Such announcements have triggered a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/01/iran-energy-crisis-asia-dirty-fuels-coal" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">wave</a> of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/18/business/iran-war-lng-asia-japan.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">reporting</a> by <a href="https://www.voiceofemirates.com/en/news/2026/04/06/the-energy-crisis-is-forcing-europe-to-return-to-coal-amid-escalating-tensions-with-iran/#google_vignette" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">global</a> <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/03/25/markets/energy-shock-asia-coal/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">media</a> outlets and <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/03/24/king-coal-back-from-dead-iran-war-rocks-energy-markets/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">analysts</a> about a “<a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2026/04/08/coal-s-resurgence-is-a-symptom-of-an-incomplete-energy-transition_6752223_23.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">return to coal</a>”. Some have lamented a trend that is “incompatible with climate imperatives”, while others have even framed this as a <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/03/24/king-coal-back-from-dead-iran-war-rocks-energy-markets/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">positive</a> development that illustrates coal’s return “from the dead”.</p>

<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full is-resized"><img alt="ragouts_energy_crisis_2C_27th_april" class="wp-image-62212" height="2161" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/ragouts_energy_crisis_2C_27th_april.png" style="width: auto; height: 500px;" width="1309" /></figure>
</div>

<p>This mirrors a trend seen after <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-does-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-mean-for-energy-and-climate-change/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Russia’s invasion of Ukraine</a> in 2022, which many commentators <a href="https://energyandcleanair.org/russia-ukraine-war-has-not-led-to-increased-fossil-fuel-consumption-in-the-eu/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">said</a> would lead to a surge in European coal use, due to disrupted gas supplies from Russia. </p>

<p>In fact, despite a spike in 2022, EU coal use has returned to its “<a href="https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/european-union/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">terminal decline</a>” and reached a historic low in 2025.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Gas to coal</h2>

<p>So far, the evidence suggests that there has been no return to coal in 2026.</p>

<p><a href="https://energyandcleanair.org/fossil-power-fell-in-march-after-hormuz-blockade/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Analysis</a> by the <a href="https://energyandcleanair.org/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air</a> found that, in March, coal power generation remained flat globally and a fall in gas-fired generation was “offset by large increases in solar and wind power, rather than coal”.</p>

<p>However, as some governments only <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/iran-war-analysis-how-60-nations-have-responded-to-the-global-energy-crisis/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">announced</a> their coal plans towards the end of March, these figures may not capture their impact.</p>

<p>To get a sense of what that impact could be, Ember assessed the impact of <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/cleanpowerdave.bsky.social/post/3mj4svswuns2g" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">coal policy changes</a> and market responses across 16 countries, plus the 27 member states of the EU, which together accounted for 95% of total coal power generation in 2025.</p>

<p>For each country, the analysis considers a maximum “worst-case” scenario for switching from gas to coal power in the face of high gas prices.</p>

<p>It also considers the potential for any out-of-service coal power plants to return and for there to be delays in previously expected closures as a result of the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/iran-war-analysis-how-60-nations-have-responded-to-the-global-energy-crisis/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">response</a> to the energy crisis.</p>

<p>Ember concludes that these factors could increase coal use by 175 terawatt hours (TWh), or 1.8%, in 2026 compared to 2025.</p>

<p>(This increase is measured relative to what would have happened without the energy crisis and does not account for wider trends in electricity generation from coal, which could see demand decline overall. Last year, coal power <a href="https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2026/#executive-summary" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">dropped</a> by 63TWh, or 0.6%.)</p>

<p>Roughly three-quarters of the global effect in the Ember analysis is from potential gas-to-coal switching in China and the EU.</p>

<p>Other notable increases could come from switching in India and Indonesia and – to a lesser extent – from coal-policy shifts in <a href="https://www.korea.kr/briefing/pressReleaseView.do?newsId=156750584" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">South Korea</a>, <a href="https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2802238-bangladesh-ramps-up-coal-fired-output-on-lng-shortages" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Bangladesh</a> and <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1987349/lights-out-bills-up-as-summer-approaches" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Pakistan</a>.</p>

<p>However, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-27/japan-to-allow-more-coal-fired-power-to-cope-with-energy-shock" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">widely</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/01/iran-energy-crisis-asia-dirty-fuels-coal" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">reported</a> policy changes by <a href="https://www.meti.go.jp/shingikai/enecho/denryoku_gas/jisedai_kiban/pdf/005_07_00.pdf" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Japan</a>, <a href="https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/3218640/asia-steps-up-coalfired-power-output" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Thailand</a> and the <a href="https://doe.gov.ph/articles/3381055--doe-enforces-emergency-measures-to-keep-power-stable-protect-consumers-from-price-spikes" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Philippines</a> are estimated to have very little, if any, impact on coal-power generation in 2026. The table below briefly summarises the potential for and reasoning behind the estimated increases in coal generation in each country in 2026.</p>

<p><a href="https://ember-energy.org/people/dave-jones/">Dave Jones</a>, chief analyst at Ember, stresses that the 1.8% figure is an upper estimate, telling Carbon Brief:</p>

<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p>&#8220;This would only happen if gas prices remained very high for the rest of the year and if there were sufficient coal stocks at power plants. The real risk of higher coal burn in 2026 comes not from coal units returning…but rather from pockets of gas-to-coal switching by existing power plants, primarily in China and the EU.”</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Moreover, Jones says there is a real chance that global coal power could continue falling over the course of this year, partly driven by the energy crisis. He explains:</p>

<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p>“If the energy crisis starts to dent electricity demand growth, coal generation – as well as gas generation – might actually be lower than before the crisis.&#8221;</p>
</blockquote>

<div class="wp-block-spacer" style="height: 30px;"></div>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">‘Structural decline’</h2>

<p>Energy experts tell Carbon Brief that Ember’s analysis aligns with their own assessments of the state of coal power.</p>

<p>Coal already had <a href="https://energyandcleanair.org/fossil-power-fell-in-march-after-hormuz-blockade/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">lower operation costs</a> than gas before the energy crisis. This means that coal power plants were already being run at high levels in coal-dependent Asian economies that also use imported LNG to generate electricity. As such, they have limited potential to cut their need for LNG by further increasing coal generation.</p>

<p><a href="https://globalenergymonitor.org/about/contact/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Christine Shearer</a>, who manages the global coal plant tracker at <a href="https://globalenergymonitor.org/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Global Energy Monitor</a>, tells Carbon Brief that, in the EU, there is a shrinking pool of countries where gas-to-coal switching is possible:</p>

<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p>“In Europe, coal fleets are smaller, older and increasingly uneconomic, while wind, solar and storage are becoming more competitive and widespread.”</p>
</blockquote>

<p>In the context of the energy crisis, Italy has <a href="https://beyondfossilfuels.org/2026/03/30/italy-delays-coal-phase-out-to-2038/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">announced</a> plans to delay its coal phaseout from 2025 to 2038. This plan, dismissed by the <a href="https://eccoclimate.org/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">ECCO</a> thinktank as “<a href="https://eccoclimate.org/coal-fired-power-plants-extending-the-phase-out-to-2038-risks-being-ineffective-and-costly/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">ineffective and costly</a>”, would have minimal impact given coal only provides <a href="https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/italy/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">around 1%</a> of the country’s power. </p>

<p>Notably, experts say that there is no evidence of the kind of structural “return to coal” that would spark concerns about countries’ climate goals. There have been no new coal plants announced in recent weeks.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.e3g.org/people/suzie-marshall/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Suzie Marshall</a>, a policy advisor working on the “coal-to-clean transition” at <a href="https://www.e3g.org/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">E3G</a>, tells Carbon Brief:</p>

<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p>“We’re seeing possible delayed retirements and higher utilisation [of existing coal plants], as understandable emergency measures to keep the lights on, but not investment in new coal projects…Any short-term increase in coal consumption that we may see in response to this ongoing energy crisis is merely masking a longer-term structural decline.&#8221;</p>
</blockquote>

<p>With <a href="https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2026/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">cost-competitive</a> solar, wind and batteries given a boost over fossil fuels by the energy crisis, there have been <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/iran-war-analysis-how-60-nations-have-responded-to-the-global-energy-crisis/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">numerous announcements</a> about new renewable energy projects since the start of war, including from <a href="https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2240737&amp;reg=3&amp;lang=2" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">India</a>, <a href="https://law.asia/japan-offshore-wind-gx-ets/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Japan</a> and <a href="https://iesr.or.id/en/pustaka/indonesia-energy-transition-outlook-ieto-2026/%20%20;%20%20https:/jakartaglobe.id/business/indonesia-targets-13-gw-solar-rollout-in-initial-phase-of-100-gw-plan" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Indonesia</a>. </p>

<p>Shearer says that, rather than a “sustained coal comeback” in 2026, the Iran war “strengthens the case for renewables”. She says:</p>

<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p>“If anything, a second gas shock in less than five years strengthens the case for renewables as the more secure long-term path.”</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Jones says that Ember expects “little change in overall fossil generation, but with a small rise in coal and a fall in gas” in 2026. He adds:</p>

<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p>“This would maximise gas-to-coal switching globally outside of the US, leaving no possibility for further switching in future years. Therefore, the big story isn&#8217;t about a coal comeback. It&#8217;s about how the relative economics of renewables, compared to fossil fuels, have been given a superboost by the crisis.&#8221;</p>
</blockquote>

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<p>The post <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/world-will-not-see-significant-return-to-coal-in-2026-despite-iran-crisis/">World ‘will not see significant return to coal’ in 2026 – despite Iran crisis</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org">Carbon Brief</a>.</p>