Climate change is driving a ‘shift’ in childhood malaria ri…

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<p>Rising temperatures are redistributing the risk of childhood malaria in sub-Saharan Africa, resulting in areas of “new risk” in the…</p> <p>The post <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-is-driving-a-shift-in-childhood-malaria-risk-across-africa">Climate change is driving a ‘shift’ in childhood malaria risk across Africa</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org">Carbon Brief</a>.</p>

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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Rising temperatures are redistributing the risk of childhood malaria in sub-Saharan Africa, resulting in areas of “new risk” in the east and south of the continent, but also “relief hotspots” in western Africa.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This is according to a new study, published in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10840-w">Nature</a>, which provides the “<a href="https://impactlab.org/research/the-past-and-future-impact-of-climate-change-on-childhood-malaria-in-africa/">most comprehensive</a> look to date at the impact of climate change on any infectious disease”.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The research finds that since the year 1900, climate change has resulted in one extra case of malaria for every 1,000 children in sub-Saharan Africa on average. </p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Over the 21st century, climate change is expected to drive down malaria rates across the continent on average, as temperatures rise above the optimum range for mosquitoes. </p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">However, the authors emphasise that continent-wide averages hide more detailed local trends. </p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">They find that cooler parts of Africa face an increase in malaria risk, as rising temperatures have made the regions more suitable for malaria-carrying mosquitoes, while warmer regions see a suppression in malaria cases.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The lead author tells Carbon Brief that this is the first study to use “<a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-the-evolving-science-of-extreme-weather-attribution">attribution</a>” – a field of climate science which uses models to compare conditions in a world with global warming to one without – to assess the impact of climate change on malaria.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The study also reveals that climate change is not the main driver of shifting malaria risk in Africa, with public health measures and government policy making a more significant impact.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The “most important” message from the study, according to another expert, is that to eliminate malaria entirely, “effective surveillance, prevention and treatment remain substantially more influential – and more actionable – than climate change alone”.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="childhood-malaria">Childhood malaria</h2>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Malaria kills hundreds of thousands of people every year. The <a href="https://www.who.int/">World Health Organization</a> (WHO) <a href="https://www.who.int/teams/global-malaria-programme/reports/world-malaria-report-2025">estimates</a> that 610,000 people died due to the disease in 2024.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The disease is transmitted to humans by bites from mosquitoes infected with the malaria <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasmodium_falciparum">parasite</a>. Malaria spreads most rapidly in warm, wet regions, where the parasite-carrying mosquitoes can live and breed.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">However, malaria is <a href="https://www.who.int/health-topics/malaria#tab=tab_1">preventable</a>. A total of 42 countries – mainly in Europe and the Americas – have <a href="https://www.who.int/teams/global-malaria-programme/elimination/countries-and-territories-certified-malaria-free-by-who">eliminated</a> the disease entirely through a combination of <a href="https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2013/lsm_malaria_control_review.html">measures</a> including insecticide use, draining the swamplands that provide breeding habitats for mosquitoes and improving basic healthcare services .Global mortality from malaria <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/malaria#malaria-was-common-across-half-the-world-since-then-it-has-been-eliminated-in-many-regions">declined</a> by 90% over the 20th century. </p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Today, the vast majority of malaria cases are recorded in Africa, which was home to <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/malaria">95% of malaria cases and deaths</a> in 2024. Children under the age of five make up three-quarters of all African malaria deaths.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The malaria-causing parasite can be detected using a blood test. Over the last century, scientists, government officials and healthcare professionals have collected thousands of blood samples from people across sub-Saharan Africa and tested for the presence of the malaria parasite.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In 2017, scientists brought <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24059">together</a> more than 50,000 samples collected from sub-Saharan Africa over 1900-2016. This data provides a “snapshot” of the amount of malaria in the population in any year in the last century the study explains.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><a href="https://ysph.yale.edu/profile/colin-carlson/">Dr Colin Carlson</a> is an assistant professor of epidemiology at the <a href="https://ysph.yale.edu/">Yale school of public health</a> and lead author of the study. He tells Carbon Brief that malaria in Africa is “extraordinarily well documented”, as a result of academic interest and colonial rule in the continent.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The size and quality of the malaria dataset are “exceptionally rare”, Carlson says. He explains that the dataset stretches back to before the impacts of human-caused climate change were strongly felt, making it “extraordinarily” valuable for this analysis. </p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The chart below shows the percentage of children between two and 10 years old who tested positive for the malaria parasite over 1900-2016. Each dot indicates one blood test result and the pink vertical bars indicate periods of “successful malaria prevention intervention”, such as the <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3026700/">1955-69 global malaria eradication programme</a>.</p>

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img alt="The percentage of children between two to 10 years old who tested positive for the parasite that causes malaria between 1990 and 2016. Source: Carlson et al. (2026)" class="wp-image-80359" height="1456" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot_2026-07-29_at_13.35.30.png" width="2264" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The percentage of children between two to 10 years old who tested positive for the parasite that causes malaria between 1990 and 2016. Source: Carlson et al. (<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10840-w">2026</a>) </figcaption></figure>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="attribution">Attribution</h2>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The authors use the blood test survey data to develop a statistical model separating out the climatic, social and economic factors that affect malaria, such as temperature, rainfall, economic development, healthcare and population changes. This allows the authors to isolate the effects of the climate on malaria.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">They find that malaria prevalence in children peaks when average monthly temperatures reach 24.9C, dropping off in warmer and cooler climates. </p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Mosquitoes also need stagnant or slow-moving water in which to lay their<a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mosquitoes/about/where-mosquitoes-live.html"> eggs</a>. The authors find that periods of drought tend to decrease malaria prevalence one-to-two months later, whereas floods increase prevalence two-to-three months later. However, they conclude that rainfall is “less important than temperature” in predicting malaria rates.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">They then combine the statistical models with <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work">climate models</a>, to simulate childhood malaria rates in a range of past and future climates. </p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">First, the authors simulate malaria rates in the present day, by running the models using the climate of 2000-14. They then carry out the same analysis, using the climate of a hypothetical world without human-caused climate change.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">By comparing the two, the authors were able to attribute the impact of climate change on malaria rates across Africa.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The link between climate change and malaria in Africa is complex and “surprisingly contentious”, according to the authors. For example, they write that “malaria resurgence in the east African highlands became a particular point of contention, with over a dozen studies arguing <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0308714100">for</a> or <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0024524">against</a> climate change as a substantial driver”.</p>

<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p class="is-style-typestyle-large wp-block-paragraph">“Today, malaria experts generally agree that climate change has contributed to elevational shifts in malaria epidemics and the geographical ranges of mosquito vectors. However, the cumulative effect of climate change on the burden of malaria is still an open question.”</p>
</blockquote>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Lead author Carlson says this paper is “one of the first impact attributions on infectious disease” and the first attribution study on climate change and malaria. He adds:</p>

<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p class="is-style-typestyle-large wp-block-paragraph">“I think it’s the most clarity we’ve had on the malaria question.”</p>
</blockquote>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><a href="https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/research/programs/climate-health-program/people/staff">Dr Teresa Yamana</a>, an associate research scientist at <a href="https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/">Columbia University</a>, who was not involved in the study, praises its “rigorous” methodology. She tells Carbon Brief that the work “demonstrates the potential of climate attribution methods to quantify the impacts of climate change on infectious diseases”. </p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="warming-world">Warming world</h2>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The findings show that “climate change isn’t just making malaria worse or better – it’s moving it, <a href="https://impactlab.org/research/the-past-and-future-impact-of-climate-change-on-childhood-malaria-in-africa/">says</a> study author <a href="https://www.tammacarleton.com/">Prof Tamma Carleton</a>, an assistant professor at UC Berkeley:</p>

<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p class="is-style-typestyle-large wp-block-paragraph">“Whether a place sees elevated malaria risks or reduced burdens under climate change depends on how hot it is today. We see relief in the hotspots and new risk nearly everywhere else.”</p>
</blockquote>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For example, in the Ethiopian highlands, low temperatures – which are unsuitable for mosquitoes to live and breed – have historically limited the spread of malaria. However, the region has seen childhood malaria rates increase by more than eight cases per 1,000 children since the year 1900 as rising temperatures have allowed the insects to expand their habitat.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The authors also found a similar increase in malaria prevalence in cooler southern African countries.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In contrast, global warming is pushing average temperatures above the ideal range for mosquitoes in many hotter parts of Africa, driving down malaria rates. The authors find that in western Africa, climate change has caused a reduction of four malaria cases per 1,000 children per year by 2014, reducing prevalence by 1-2%.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Overall, climate change has resulted in one extra case of malaria for every 1,000 children in sub-Saharan Africa since the year 1900, the study says.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The authors also run their models for three <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change">future climate scenarios</a>: low (SSP1-2.6), intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and very-high (<a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-high-emissions-rcp8-5-global-warming-scenario">SSP5-8.5</a>) emissions pathways. Comparing these to the present-day model results shows how climate change could affect malaria cases over the coming century. </p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">They find that the trends observed so far will largely continue into the future – meaning climate change will lower the prevalence of malaria in warm regions and increase the prevalence in cool regions.</p>

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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The study concludes that under the intermediate scenario, which is <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-record-global-heat-means-for-breaching-the-1-5c-warming-limit">broadly in line</a> with current climate policies, warming will drive down childhood malaria cases by about three cases per 1,000 children in central Africa and 16 cases per 1,000 children in west Africa by the end of the century. </p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">By contrast, cases could increase by around 20% over the same period in regions such as the Rift Valley and coastal southern Africa – a rise of 30 cases per 1,000 children.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The maps below show changes in childhood malaria prevalence due to climate change in today’s climate (left) and the climate of 2096-2100 under the intermediate scenario (right). </p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Red indicates an increase in malaria prevalence and blue indicates a decrease. Greyer colours indicate greater uncertainty in the model results. White indicates regions where no data was collected.</p>

</div>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Carlson tells Carbon Brief that this is “the first study to really confidently answer the highland East Africa debate”. </p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="eradicating-malaria">Eradicating malaria</h2>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Healthcare workers, governments and scientists have been working to eliminate malaria for decades.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">On average, the authors find that climate change will reduce the prevalence of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa, as temperatures rise above the optimum range for mosquitoes. This effect is more pronounced at higher warming levels. </p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Under the low emissions scenario, about 1 case per 1,000 children will be averted by the end of the century. Meanwhile under the highest emissions scenario, average prevalence falls by 20 cases per 1,000 children, marking a 9% reduction.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The graph below shows childhood malaria rates over 1990-2024 in the historical climate (blue) and in a world without climate change (grey). These estimates are shown relative to baseline prevalence across 1901-30.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">After the year 2014, the plot shows projected future changes in malaria prevalence, relative to a 2015-20 baseline, in the low (purple), intermediate (pink) and high (green) scenarios.</p>

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img alt="Malaria prevalence in the historical climate (blue), historical climate without global warming (grey), low emissions scenario (purple), intermediate emissions scenario (pink) and very-high emissions scenario (green). Source: Carlson et al. (2026)" class="wp-image-80360" height="746" src="https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot_2026-07-29_at_13.35.04.png" width="2468" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Malaria prevalence in the historical climate (blue), historical climate without global warming (grey), low emissions scenario (purple), intermediate emissions scenario (pink) and very-high emissions scenario (green). Source: Carlson et al. (<a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10840-w">2026</a>)</figcaption></figure>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Carlson emphasises that this does not mean that climate change is “good news” for healthcare in sub-Saharan Africa. He explains that climate change will bring a wide range of negative health impacts that will strain healthcare systems, adding: </p>

<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p class="is-style-typestyle-large wp-block-paragraph">“A world that is too hot for malaria is not a good world for the health of children.”</p>
</blockquote>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">He also notes that climate change is “not the primary driving factor of malaria dynamics”. For example, he notes that malaria prevalence fell over 2000-15, by about 16 percentage points, after the disease was <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241509442">identified</a> as a “critical global target of the Millennium Development Goals”.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This reduction is 200 times greater than the increase seen so far because of climate change, Carlson says. He adds: </p>

<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p class="is-style-typestyle-large wp-block-paragraph">“It would not be tremendously hard both to keep malaria out of new places and to eliminate it where it is maybe going to get a little bit of an assist from climate change.”</p>
</blockquote>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><a href="https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/845678/overview">Dr Adugna Woyessa</a> is a senior researcher at the <a href="https://ephi.gov.et/">Ethiopian Public Health Institute</a> and was not involved in the study. He has previously carried out <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/malaria-resurgence-feared-in-ethiopia-amid-el-nino-and-climate-change">research</a> on malaria in eastern Africa.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Woyessa praises the study, telling Carbon Brief that the research could bring about a “paradigm shift” in efforts to eliminate malaria. He argues that the study is a “tool for engaging giant development partners”, adding that “future work will be needed to situate these global trends in local contexts”.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><a href="https://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/staff/jmessina.html">Dr Janey Messina</a> is an associate professor in the <a href="https://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/">school of geography and the environment </a>at the University of Oxford and was also not involved in the study. She praises the paper’s “strong” method.</p>

<p class="wp-block-paragraph">However, she cautions that the findings “should not be interpreted as forecasts of total future malaria burden”, because they only model the impact of climate change on malaria, while excluding “social, demographic and public-health determinants”, such as inequality, migration, conflict and changing access to malaria interventions.</p>

<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p class="is-style-typestyle-large wp-block-paragraph">“One of the paper’s most important messages is this: effective surveillance, prevention and treatment remain substantially more influential – and more actionable – than climate change alone.”</p>
</blockquote>

<div class="article-summary__content">
<p>Carlson, C. et al. (2026) The past and future impact of climate change on childhood malaria in Africa, Nature, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10840-w">doi:10.1038/s41586-026-10840-w</a></p>
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<p>The post <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-is-driving-a-shift-in-childhood-malaria-risk-across-africa">Climate change is driving a ‘shift’ in childhood malaria risk across Africa</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org">Carbon Brief</a>.</p>

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