China’s polysilicon prices fall again amid 480,000 MT inventory buildup

<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Global solar supply chains face renewed price pressure as weak post-holiday demand in China collides with high polysilicon stockpiles, pushing wafer costs lower and weighing on exporters ahead of policy changes.</span></p><p>Polysilicon prices have fallen again in China as weak post-holiday demand met high stockpiles and returning supply. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association’s (CNMIA) silicon industry branch reported a sharp weekly drop on March 4, with average n-type prime polysilicon down 6.58% week on week to CNY 48,300 ($7,002) per metric ton (MT) and n-type granular silicon down 12.87% to CNY 44,000/MT.</p>
<p>The survey covered nine leading producers accounting for 89.3% of China’s total output in the fourth quarter of 2025.</p>
<p>The decline has largely erased the price recovery seen in January and early February. In early January, average n-type prime polysilicon had climbed to CNY 59,200/MT and granular silicon to CNY 55,800/MT, as lower operating rates and stronger downstream procurement temporarily tightened supply.</p>
<p>The selloff is being driven by weak demand and elevated inventories. Polysilicon stocks rose for seven consecutive months, reaching 480,000 MT by the end of February, while post-holiday recovery from downstream cell and module makers lagged expectations. February output fell 17.3% month on month to about 84,400 MT, though March production is forecast to rise slightly to 87,000 MT to 89,000 MT, limiting supply support for prices.</p>
<p>Weakness in polysilicon is already affecting wafers. The association’s wafer branch said this week that there have been declines across the board: n-type G10L wafers fell to CNY 1.07/piece, G12R to CNY 1.17/piece, and G12 to CNY 1.36/piece, down roughly 2.5% to 2.9% week on week. Downstream demand remained soft, February wafer output dropped to 45.5 GW, and wafer inventories rose by about 5.2 GW.</p>
<p>Policy factors are adding pressure. China’s Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration announced on Jan. 8 that VAT export rebates for PV products will be canceled from April 1, 2026, in a move seen as driving up pressure on exporters and accelerating the shakeout of weaker capacity.</p>
<p>The CNMIA's silicon industry branch said that without unexpected policy support or stronger end-demand, polysilicon prices are likely to remain under pressure, keeping the Chinese PV supply chain in a destocking phase.</p>