Ultra-low-cost solar could enable 2,000 GW market in Australia

<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Researchers from the Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics say ultra-low-cost solar could deliver 1,000 TWh annually for domestic use and 2,600 TWh for exports under Australia’s long-term energy transition scenarios.</span></p><p><strong>From <a href="https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2026/03/26/ultra-low-cost-solar-research-models-2000-gw-scale-solar-market-potential/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">pv magazine Australia</a></strong></p>
<p>The Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics (ACAP) researchers from the Australian National University (ANU) and University of New South Wales (UNSW) have quantified the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) <a href="https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2025/07/09/arena-targets-next-gen-solar-innovation-with-60-million-funding-boost/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">ultra-low-cost</a> (ULC) solar target to demonstrate national energy systems could deliver 1,000 TWh per year for domestic use and 2,600 TWh per year for export.</p>
<p>The ARENA 30-30-30 vision for ULC solar represents 30% solar module efficiency and an installed cost of $0.30 (USD 21 cents) per watt by 2030.</p>
<p>Using innovative system-level energy modelling, the researchers show that ULC solar could potentially support national energy systems by delivering 1,000 TWh/year for domestic use and 2,600 TWh/year for export, creating a 2,000 GW-scale solar market in Australia.</p>
<p>An ACAP statement describes the scale as a requirement to power a fully decarbonized economy while enabling large-scale production of green metals for global markets.</p>
<p>‘<a href="https://researchportalplus.anu.edu.au/en/projects/mapping-the-market-opportunities-for-ultra-low-cost-solar-4/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Mapping the market opportunities for ultra low-cost solar</a>’ modelling project contributor ANU School of Engineering Research Fellow Dr Bin Lu said used smartly, 2,000 GW of solar could power a fully decarbonized domestic economy.</p>
<p>“[It would also] support large-scale production of green metals for export – positioning Australia as a global supplier of green products while dramatically reducing national emissions,” Lu said.</p>
<p>The modeling shows that ULC solar can change the economics of Australia’s energy transition, where electricity markets can deliver reliable 100% renewable power at costs well below current wholesale prices, and cost reductions flow directly into heavy industry.</p>
<p>Using an integrated, system-level approach, the study captures interactions between industrial decarbonisation, electricity market transformation and green commodity production, rather than treating them separately.</p>
<figure class="wp-caption alignnone" id="attachment_119234"><img alt="" class="size-medium wp-image-119234" height="337" src="https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2026/03/8db1c4_3a297b8d8c764e608bde131df95c87bcmv2-600x337.avif" width="600" /><figcaption class="wp-caption-text"><i>Image: Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics</i></p>
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<p>Consequently, the 30-30-30 target model found <a href="https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2026/03/25/rio-tinto-deal-to-deliver-7-5-billion-renewables-investment-in-queensland/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">green aluminium</a>, ammonia and steel production can reach cost parity with conventional production, and aviation electro-fuels move significantly closer to commercial viability.</p>
<p>“Australia has abundant solar resources, and some of the world’s richest mineral reserves, such as iron ore and bauxite. Used smartly, cheaper renewable technologies could power Australia’s transition to a global supplier of green products,” Lu said.</p>
<p>The techno-economic modeling  evolves from an electricity-sector optimization framework into an integrated, economy-wide energy system model that enables coordinated modeling of sectoral energy transitions.</p>
<p>The collaborative project is led by ANU School of Engineering professors Kylie Catchpole and <a href="https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2026/03/24/oil-reserves-last-for-weeks-solar-panels-last-for-decades/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Andrew Blakers</a> with contributions from Dr Lu, and UNSW School of Engineering Dr Nathan Chang and Dr Simao Lin.</p>
<p>ACAP reports that follow-on analyses is now examining electricity network transitions and export-oriented clean energy pathways.</p>